JAE Volume 18 Number 2 October 2019

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Editor: Denis Kadima
Managing Editor: Heather Acott

Contributors: Essa Njie, Abdoulaye Saine, Albano Agostinho Troco, Dércio Tsandzana, Bethel Uzoma Ihugba, Charles Alfred, Wishes Tendayi Mututwa, Oluyinka Osunkunle, Brenda Mututwa, Robert Nyenhuis, Mattias Krönke, Stephen Chan, Tom Lodge, Ivor Sarakinsky

Key terms: dictatorship, Gambia's 2016 presidential election, opposition coalition, Yahya Jammeh, electoral governance, electoral management bodies, democratisation, southern Africa, post-conflict states, political participation, electoral observation, social networks, Mozambique, constitutional democracy, Electoral Act 2010, electoral offences, party politics, political party accountability, political marketing, social media, image-making, online politicking, Zimbabwe, South Africa, elections, electoral politics, voting behaviour, party politics, electioneering, factions, manifesto, corruption, reform

GAMBIA'S 'BILLION YEAR' PRESIDENT: The End of an Era and the Ensuing Political Impasse

Essa Njie and Abdoulaye Saine

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Essa Njie is a lecturer in Political Science at the University of the Gambia with specific interest in security sector reform, human rights and governance, civil society, elections and democratic consolidation in Africa
Abdoulaye Saine is a Gambian-born professor in Political Science at Miami University in Oxford, Ohio and author of The Paradox of Third-Wave Democratisation in Africa: The Gambia Under AFPRC-APRC 1994-2008

ABSTRACT: The Gambia's presidential election in December 2016 marked the end of an era for Yahya Jammeh, the man who had vowed to rule the country for 'one billion years if Allah says so'. The resulting political impasse following Jammeh's rejection of the results 'in its entirety' and his refusal to step down plunged the country into political uncertainty. This paper explores the end of Jammeh's 22-year rule in Africa's smallest mainland country, focussing on the 2016 polls which he lost to former realtor, Adama Barrow. The election offers relevant lessons to students of political transitions and contemporary election discourse in Africa and provides an analysis of some of the factors that accounted for his defeat.

ELECTORAL GOVERNANCE AND DEMOCRATISATION IN SOUTHERN AFRICAN POST-CONFLICT STATES: Electoral Management Bodies in Angola, Mozambique and South Africa

Albano Agostinho Troco

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Albano Agostinho Troco is NRF/British Academy Post-doctoral Research Fellow in the Department of Political Studies, University of the Witwatersrand

ABSTRACT: Democratisation is a complex process that includes crafting political institutions. These institutions reflect existing power relations at the critical juncture of their genesis, thus influencing the development of subsequent political processes. The study uses this perspective to examine the impact of electoral governance on democratisation with a focus on three southern African post-conflict states. Specifically, the paper investigates the role of electoral management bodies (EMBs) in accounting for the distinctive regime trajectories in Angola, South Africa and Mozambique. The analysis suggests that successful attempts by incumbents to redesign EMBs after the founding elections have led to the establishment of self-serving institutions of electoral governance. This has had a negative impact on the credibility of subsequent electoral processes and the nature of the emerging regimes in the countries under scrutiny.

USING ON-LINE PLATFORMS TO OBSERVE AND MONITOR ELECTIONS: A Netnography of Mozambique

Dércio Tsandzana

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Dércio Tsandzana is a PhD student of political science, Sciences Po Bordeaux, Pessac, and teaching fellow at Eduardo Mondlane University, Maputo

ABSTRACT: This article aims to understand the political impact of social networking platforms on the general elections in Mozambique held on 15 October 2014. It focusses on how electoral observation and monitoring were carried out in Mozambique using online tools, and is based on an ongoing research project exploring young people in politics in Mozambique through the internet. It uses a qualitative approach of both interviews and digital ethnography to sketch the landscape of online electoral observation in Mozambique. The positions here are the result of abstraction and generalisation - the particular positions of individuals or groups will only ever approximate these generalised positions, which are reconstructed from the complexity of everyday situated experience. As a preliminary conclusion, we have noted that the internet allows the emergence of new perspectives in political participation in Mozambique, despite its limited access to the internet.

POLITICAL PARTIES AND ELECTORAL OFFENCES IN NIGERIA: A Critical Analysis

Bethel Uzoma Ihugba and Charles Alfred

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Dr Bethel Uzoma Ihugba is Senior Research Fellow, Legal Research Division, Legislative Support Services, National Institute for Legislative and Democratic Studies, National Assembly, Abuja
Dr Charles Alfred is Research Fellow, Department of Democratic Studies, National Institute for Legislative and Democratic Studies, National Assembly, Abuja

ABSTRACT: The paper examines the Nigerian Constitution and Electoral Act 2010 (as amended) on the role and complicity of political parties in electoral offences in Nigeria. It explores the extent to which political party activities or inactions constitute or contribute to electoral offences. The objective is to find out whether political parties are complicit in electoral offences, and whether the Electoral Act needs to be reformed to accommodate political party culpability, reduce the criminal complicity of political parties, and improve political party accountability. The paper adopts a mixed method of normative and critical analysis. Normative analysis arises from examination of doctrinal data which consist of the principles of law, provisions of the Electoral Act 2010 and the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria (CFRN) 1999 and other relevant laws regarding jurisprudence in democracy and constitutionalism, in order to determine their coherence and validity. Critical analysis, on the other hand, is applied to electoral and democratic principles in extant literature and policy in order to justify the necessity of reforming electoral laws. The paper finds that the Electoral Act is silent in many instances of potential political party complicity in electoral offences. However, the law could be reformed to improve political party accountability and reduce the incidence of electoral offences in Nigeria. It recommends some policy reforms and amendments to improve the effectiveness of the Electoral Act 2010.

FACEBOOK IMAGE-MAKING IN ZIMBABWE'S 2018 ELECTION CAMPAIGNS: Social Media and Emerging Trends in Political Marketing

Wishes Tendayi Mututwa, Oluyinka Osunkunle and Brenda Mututwa

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Wishes Tendayi Mututwa is a PhD graduate at the University of Fort Hare
Oluyinka Osunkunle is Associate Professor in the Department of Communication, University of Fort Hare
Brenda Mututwa is a Masters student at Lupane State University, Zimbabwe

ABSTRACT: This article explores changing political communication and marketing trends in Zimbabwe when presidential candidates used Facebook to reach out, largely to the youth and urban voters, during the 2018 election campaign. Recent studies have identified the power of social media as a platform on which politicians portray images that convince the electorate to vote for them. These images can be created through the photographs, video footage and texts that politicians post on their Facebook pages. The study employed a qualitative approach to establish the role played by political imagery used by contesting parties and candidates in the campaign period ahead of the 2018 elections in Zimbabwe, in particular the frontrunners and larger political parties. MDC-Alliance presidential candidate Nelson Chamisa and Zanu-PF candidate Emmerson Mnangagwa were both serious contenders for the presidency. The analysis sheds light on the implications of image-making and modern political trends in Zimbabwe and how Facebook manages to reach out to the targeted electorate.

THE 2019 SOUTH AFRICAN ELECTIONS: Incumbency and Uncertainty

Robert Nyenhuis and Mattias Krönke

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Robert Nyenhuis is an assistant professor, Department of Political Science, California State University, Pomona, Pomona, CA (USA)
Mattias Krönke is a PhD candidate, Department of Political Studies, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa

ABSTRACT: The 2019 South African elections marked the country's sixth iteration of free and fair electoral contests since its democratisation in 1994. Although the outcome gives the African National Congress (ANC) yet another five-year mandate, the party has not gone unchallenged at the polls. It registered its lowest national vote share since the transition, a major concern for the party of liberation. The most recent contest also demonstrates the resilience of the main opposition party, the Democratic Alliance (DA), and the continued upward trajectory of its closest rival, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF). In this article, we analyse available survey data on South Africans' attitudes and offer some empirical answers to account for the election results. We argue that race continues to feature prominently in electoral decision-making but it does so in ways that deviate slightly from conventional wisdom. Further, we put forth an explanation that the parties' leaders played a central role in shaping citizens' voting behaviour, especially among their own partisan supporters.

THE MANIFESTO EXPERIMENT AND INTERNAL ELECTIONEERING IN THE BOTSWANA DEMOCRATIC PARTY

Christian John Makgala

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Christian John Makgala is a professor in the Department of History, University of Botswana

ABSTRACT: Written manifestos seem to be a rarity in intra-political party electioneering in Africa, and there is a view that African party electioneering is largely nonissue based, instead being personality-driven. This article observes that the phenomenon seems applicable even to Africa's supposed 'senior democracy', Botswana. Yet, the enduring, issueless factional electioneering of the long ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) resulted in a significant, albeit one-off, interregnum in 2015. In the 2014 general elections, the combined opposition had garnered 53% of the popular vote, while the BDP received just 47%. The BDP managed to hold onto power, however, due to the country's first-past-the-post (FPTP) electoral system. This development appears to have shaken and confused the elites of the BDP and caused concern among the party's hard-line factionalists. Subsequently, Botsalo Ntuane did extremely well in the party's 2015 central committee elections. In an unprecedented move he competed for the influential position of secretary general as an independent candidate and with an actual policy manifesto. This move was outside of the traditional factional sponsorship method long-dominant within the BDP. However, the factionalists soon regrouped and acted to marginalise him and his manifesto. Ntuane consequently performed quite poorly in the later 2017 elections, which once again were fought along strict factional lines with no space for ideas or policies. This article argues that Ntuane's manifesto may have been perceived as too radical and unacceptably ambitious by the conservative party elites. This manifesto also seems to have threatened entrenched personal interests and corrupt practices within the BDP-led government. The article concludes with a note on the dynamics and results of the 2019 general elections.

OPINION: THE WORLD ROBERT MUGABE LEFT BEHIND

Stephen Chan

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Stephen Chan is Professor of World Politics at SOAS, University of London

REVIEW: How to Rig an Election

Tom Lodge

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Professor of Peace and Conflict Studies University of Limerick

Nic Cheeseman and Brian Klaas
2018
Yale University Press
London & New Haven
310 pp

REVIEW: Election 2019: Change and Stability in South Africa's Democracy

Ivor Sarakinsky

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Associate Professor, Wits School of Governance

Collette Schulz-Herzenberg & Roger Southall (eds)
2019
Jacana Media
Auckland Park
350 pp